Oscar prediction is a fun game. But it is also a game most people get wrong. Why? The answer is simple. People forget what they are doing. You are predicting who will take home the statue, not voting for who, you think, should win the award. Sorry, you are not that important. But you can transcend than un-importance by pretending to know how the majority of Academy members will vote, without ever seeing their ballots.
And you can do that. If only you don't let feelings come in the way. Academy voters (or the total count of votes) may throw up a surprise or two. But, on an average, they are anything but unpredictable. In this Internet Age, you just need to keep your eyes and ears open to read the signs. There are so many award shows that lead up to the little golden fella and they provide pointers, either to or away.
The Academicians (as opposed to academicians) are in the show business, which translates to glamour with a capital G. They allow themselves to be manipulated by the manifold media, who are themselves manipulated by the studio spinners, who in turn are manipulated by their own delusions about how much they can achieve. I haven't been able to complete a full circle there. And I can't. There is a missing link. And that is the fun in predicting. Not everything goes according to plan.
Last year I got 21 correct out of 24. I kid you not. I would have gotten 22, but some subconscious Mallu-ness prevented me from siding with a fellow Mallu. I don't anticipate an encore this year, but I still back myself. After all, if I got a doughnut every time I got one right that my fellow players didn't, I would have been the envy of Homer Simpson. Without any further ado, I present my predictions. Be sure to hold it against me if I fail miserably.
The Best Foreign Language Film is a toss-up between The White Ribbon and A Prophet. I am as much of a racist as the next guy, but that is more the white vs brown variety. Semitism or anti-Semitism doesn't affect me. But it is a fact that most Hollywood studios were set up and are still being run by Jews. And big shots in the different fields are Jews. Their way of proclaiming their heritage is by ensuring the Holocaust subjects never go out of fashion. And that is the reason I go along with The White Ribbon.
Burma VJ and The Cove are perfect outlets for the holier-than-thouness of the mostly American Academy. The Cove benefits from more publicity and it gets my vote for Best Documentary, Feature. "The untold story about wild rabbits that lived between the Berlin Walls." This premise itself (Królik po berlinsku) should win an Oscar. But I don't think the patriotic Academy can ignore anything titled China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province. That's a lock for Best Documentary, Short Subject.
In the Best Short Film, Animated category the new Wallace and Gromit is making the rounds. And familiarity counts for something in the lesser-known categories. But I'm instead going with French Toast. Just gut. Can't explain. Likewise, I believe the Indian summer will continue to this year with a statue for Kavi in Best Short Film, Live Action.
This is Avatar's year, make no mistake about it. We will discuss the big awards later. First let's clean up the technical awards. Beginning with Visual Effects, going on to Sound Mixing and Sound Editing and also sweeping up Editing, Art Direction and Cinematography. That's right, folks. I'm ignoring Hurt Locker's decibel-related claims and going native with the Na'vi.
Now that the major part of the elephant is out of the room, let's concentrate on the others stuff. Most of the "sweeps" usually pick up the gong for Original Music Score, also. This time, however, Michael Giacchino seems to be winning everything for Up. I will go with the flow. And there won't be anything tired about "The Weary Kind" (Crazy Heart) as it will pick up the Original Song Oscar.
Costume Design and Makeup rarely go hand in hand on Oscar night. But this time I'm sticking with the constant in both categories: The Young Victoria. Doesn't hurt that I'm bluntly partial towards Ms. Blunt! Heath Ledger's swansong will go home empty handed. (After all Ledger, Depp, Law and Farrell essentially wore the same costume! I know, I'm cruel.) And how can Star Trek get any makeup prices? No one would dare put any on the lovely Zoe and Zachary Quinto looks like a Vulcan anyway.
Writing is what distinguishes us from the writers. Up in the Air will win its only award for Best Adapted Screenplay. And that will not make it any less fine a movie than it is. The Original Screenplay is a two-horse race, but the 'Basterd' Tarantino will be second-best to Hurt Locker and Mark Boal.
We now come to the showmen and women. Christoph Waltz and Monique would be the only nominees in the Supporting categories who would have made a speech. Remember Forest Whitaker in Last King of Scotland. It's that kind of a lead that they have over the rest of also-rans.
And here are the Leading categories. Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela. A no-brainer, right? And in a Clint Eastwood film? Why are there other nominees? But somehow, Invictus never struck a chord. As a result Jeff Bridges will get his due for his overall coolness over the years. All of us Dudes will abide by that. The best Actress is where I go, in many eyes, from predicting to hoping. Sandra Bullock would have blindsided a lot of people, but I still think she hasn't got the bollocks to beat Our Lady of Accents in Julie and Julia. Meryl Steep will prevail. Or I hope so.
The King of All Worlds in a recent interview uttered something that was nothing short of blasphemy. He said Kathryn Bigelow should win the Best Director and Avatar should win Best Picture. There goes Avatar's chances, everyone said. However, don't think it is that far-fetched. In fact, I believe that is exactly how it will unfold. And everyone will be happy. Just watch and see.
I will be back after the awards are announced on Sunday night. We'll then discuss how much humble pie I should eat. In the meantime, Happy Predicting, Folks. And then let's all, as Mr 12,775 Warren Beatty himself famously said, watch them congratulate themselves.
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